Size Scenarios (Level 1 SWAG)

Purpose

Assign a T-shirt size (XS → XL) to every BDD scenario using the reference stories as anchors. Record both SP (for token budget) and FP weight (for client AFP). Produce story point totals per feature and per sprint. Populate the Scenario List tab of ESTIMATION_TEMPLATE.xlsx.

Prerequisites

• EST-02 complete (reference stories defined, K-token baselines set, SP and FP weights recorded)
• BDD feature files exist in docs/features/

Steps

Step 1: Enumerate All Scenarios

Read all .feature files in docs/features/. For each scenario, record:
- Scenario ID (e.g., FOB-PLAYBOOKS-LIST+FIND-01)
- Feature name
- Act/group
- One-line description (from Scenario title)

Paste the list into the Scenario List tab, one row per scenario.

Step 2: Size Each Scenario Against Reference Stories

For each scenario, compare to the reference stories defined in EST-02:

Sizing heuristics:

For each scenario, record: assigned size, SP value, FP weight, and a one-line sizing rationale.

Anti-patterns — never do these:

Step 3: Challenge Outliers

Before finalizing, review:
- Any scenario sized XL → can it be split into two L scenarios?
- Any scenario sized > XL → must be split (McConnell rule: no single unit > 1.5× reference L)
- Any cluster of XS scenarios that share a model → consider whether they belong to one M

Propose splits/merges to user for approval before proceeding.

Step 4: Group by Feature and Sprint

In the Scenario List tab:
1. Group rows by Feature (sub-total SP and FP per feature)
2. Assign scenarios to sprints based on:
- Dependencies (parent model before child, auth before protected endpoints)
- Priority (must-have before nice-to-have)
- Sprint capacity (SP per sprint from Setup tab)
3. Record: Sprint #, SP allocated, FP allocated, cumulative SP, cumulative FP

Step 5: Compute Totals

In the Scenario List tab, compute and record:
- Total scenarios: ___
- Total SP: ___ (drives token budget in EST-05)
- Total FP: ___ (drives AFP quote in Client Quote tab)
- SP per sprint (sum per sprint column)
- FP per sprint (sum per sprint column)
- Estimated number of sprints

Step 6: Flag Assumptions

For any scenario where sizing is uncertain, add a flag column entry:
- ASSUMPTION: sized M because requirements unclear for error handling
- ASSUMPTION: sized L but may be M if third-party API has SDK

These assumptions become the first risk items to address in Sprint 1.

Rules to Follow

I. Size Relative to Reference, Not Absolute

Never size in hours or days. Size by comparing to the reference story. The reference story is the unit of measure.

II. One Scenario Per Row

Do not aggregate scenarios into epics in this tab. The Monte Carlo simulation operates at the scenario level. Aggregation happens only in the sprint grouping columns.

III. Record Both SP and FP

Every row must have both SP (for internal token budget) and FP weight (for client quote). They differ for L and XL — do not conflate them.

IV. Scenario Must Be Independently Executable

If a scenario cannot be tested in isolation, split it or make the dependency explicit.

V. No Hidden Work

Every piece of work that will consume tokens must map to a scenario. Infrastructure, CI/CD, devops scaffolding → Sprint 0 overhead line item (BSP/DSP FPs from EST-01).

Success Criteria

• All BDD scenarios enumerated and sized
• Both SP and FP weight recorded per scenario
• No unresolved XL+ scenarios (all split or explicitly approved)
• Scenarios grouped into sprints respecting dependencies and capacity
• SP and FP totals computed per feature, per sprint, project total
• Assumptions flagged
• Scenario List tab of ESTIMATION_TEMPLATE.xlsx complete