Assess Risk Multipliers

Purpose

Two separate multiplier assessments are performed here:

Section A — Internal (ECF/TCF): Rate Environmental and Technical Complexity Factors to produce the combined multiplier that adjusts raw SP-based token estimates. These factors also calibrate the $/FP rate. Never shown to client.

Section B — Client-Facing (Stack Factor / Org Factor): Select the Stack Factor and Org Factor that go into the AFP formula on the Client Quote. These encode the same real-world friction in commercially legible terms. Shown on quote.

The two assessments are done together because they are informed by the same project context, but they produce separate outputs.

Prerequisites

• EST-03 complete (scenarios sized)
• Stakeholder available to validate risk ratings

Section A — Internal: ECF / TCF

Step A1: Rate ECF Factors

Open the ECF tab in ESTIMATION_TEMPLATE.xlsx. Rate each factor from 0 (no influence) to 5 (strong influence).

Environmental Complexity Factors:

ECF Formula: ECF = 1.4 + (-0.03 × Σ(Weight × Rating))

A value < 1.0 means favorable environment (fewer tokens). A value > 1.0 means challenging (more tokens).

AI-Specific Extension (add to ECF tab):

ECF_final = ECF_base × (1 + AI_adjustment)

Step A2: Rate TCF Factors

Open the TCF tab. Rate each factor 0–5.

Technical Complexity Factors:

TCF Formula: TCF = 0.6 + (0.01 × Σ(Weight × Rating))

Step A3: Compute Internal Combined Multiplier

Internal Multiplier = ECF_final × TCF

Record in Setup tab. Applied to all SP × K estimates in EST-05 to produce the token budget.

This multiplier also feeds the $/FP calibration rate (EST-08): as ECF/TCF are refined by actuals, the effective cost per FP delivered changes, and $/FP is updated accordingly.

Section B — Client-Facing: Stack Factor and Org Factor

Step B1: Select Stack Factor

From Reference Table §4, select the base tier that best describes the client's technology environment, then apply any additive modifiers:

Base tiers:

Additive modifiers: on-premises +0.10, legacy integration +0.15, multi-cloud +0.15, real-time +0.10, mobile +0.20.

Record: Stack Factor base + modifiers = Stack Factor total: ___

Step B2: Select Org Factor

From Reference Table §5, select the tier that best describes the client's organizational friction:

Record: Org Factor: ___

Step B3: Confirm $/FP Rate

From Setup tab (populated in EST-02), confirm the $/FP rate applies:
- SEED: $250/FP (default until 3 sprints calibrated)
- CALIBRATED: actual $/FP from last sprint close (EST-08)

Record in Client Quote tab (Tab 0).

Step B4: Preview AFP

With Stack Factor, Org Factor, and total FP from Scenario List, compute preview AFP:

Preview AFP = Total FP (from Scenario List) × Stack Factor × Org Factor
Preview Quote Total = Preview AFP × $/FP

This is a preview — the AFP on the Client Quote tab will use the final FP total from EST-05/EST-06. Present preview to user for a sanity check before proceeding.

Rules to Follow

I. Rate ECF/TCF Honestly, Not Optimistically

Optimistic risk ratings are the most common estimation failure. If in doubt between 3 and 4, choose 4.

II. ECF/TCF Are Internal — Never on Client Quote

The client sees Stack Factor and Org Factor. ECF/TCF are calibration inputs for $/FP. Mixing them up produces misleading quotes.

III. Re-Rate Each Sprint

ECF/TCF are not static. At each sprint close (EST-08), revisit factors that have changed. Stack Factor and Org Factor can also change if the project context changes — update and re-quote.

IV. If AFP Preview Looks Wrong, Fix the Inputs — Not the Rate

If the preview AFP produces a surprising total, diagnose which input is off (FP count? Stack Factor? Org Factor?) — not pad or cut the $/FP rate to hit a target number.

Success Criteria

• ECF and TCF factors rated with rationale for outliers (Section A)
• Internal combined multiplier computed and recorded in Setup tab
• Stack Factor and Org Factor selected and recorded (Section B)
• $/FP rate confirmed
• AFP preview computed and reviewed
• ECF, TCF tabs and Client Quote tab of ESTIMATION_TEMPLATE.xlsx updated