Produce Rough Estimates + AFP

Purpose

Produce two parallel outputs from the Level 1 sizing:

1. Internal token budget — SP × K-token baselines × ECF × TCF → token estimates per sprint and project total. Used for sprint planning and AI cost forecasting.
2. AFP (Adjusted Function Points) — Σ FP × Stack Factor × Org Factor → the client-facing deliverable measure that feeds the quote. Populated in the Client Quote tab.

Both outputs come from the same Level 1 sizing. Token budget stays internal; AFP goes on the invoice.

Prerequisites

• EST-03 complete (SP and FP totals per sprint in Scenario List)
• EST-04 complete (internal multiplier in Setup tab; Stack Factor + Org Factor in Client Quote tab)
• K-token baselines in Setup tab (SEED or CALIBRATED)

Steps

Step 1: Compute Internal Token Estimates Per Scenario

For each scenario in the Scenario List tab, compute using SP:

Raw Tokens (min)      = SP × K_min
Raw Tokens (expected) = SP × K_expected
Raw Tokens (max)      = SP × K_max

Where K values are the K-token-per-SP baselines from the Setup tab for the assigned size tier.

Step 2: Apply Internal Risk Multiplier

Adjusted Tokens (min)      = Raw Tokens (min)      × Internal Multiplier × 0.85
Adjusted Tokens (expected) = Raw Tokens (expected) × Internal Multiplier
Adjusted Tokens (max)      = Raw Tokens (max)      × Internal Multiplier × 1.15

The 0.85/1.15 asymmetric adjustment preserves PERT shape after multiplier application.

Step 3: Aggregate Token Budget to Sprint Level

In the Rough Estimates tab, for each sprint:
- Sum adjusted token estimates (min/expected/max) across all scenarios in that sprint
- Record sprint token budget (expected)
- Record sprint token range (min → max)

Step 4: Derive Duration

Duration (days) = Sprint Token Budget (expected) / Daily Token Throughput

Where Daily Token Throughput = tokens the AI processes per working day (from Setup tab, typically 500K–2M depending on model and workflow).

For the project total, also compute with McConnell's schedule formula:

Duration (days) = 3.0 × (Total Effort Person-Months)^(1/3)

(For solo AI development, use sprint-by-sprint approach instead.)

Step 5: Apply COCOMO Convergence Ranges

Adjust estimate ranges according to current phase:

Mark which phase applies.

Step 6: Compute AFP (Client-Facing)

In the Client Quote tab, compute AFP using FP weights (not SP):

AFP = Σ FP × Stack Factor × Org Factor

Where:
- Σ FP = total FP from Scenario List tab (feature delivery FPs only)
- Stack Factor = from EST-04 Section B (Reference Table §4)
- Org Factor = from EST-04 Section B (Reference Table §5)

Add Sprint 0 overhead separately:

Sprint 0 AFP = BSP+DSP FP × Stack Factor × Org Factor
              = 15 FP × Stack × Org  (if bootstrap included)

Compute total quote:

Quote Total = (Feature AFP + Sprint 0 AFP) × $/FP

Step 7: Populate Rough Estimates Tab

For each sprint, record:
- Sprint #, scenarios included, SP total, FP total
- Token budget: min / expected / max (in K tokens) — internal
- Duration: min / expected / max (in days) — internal
- Phase (convergence range applied)
- Status: SEED / CALIBRATED / BORROWED

For project total: total token budget, total duration, number of sprints, estimated completion date range.

Step 8: Prepare Two Summaries

Internal summary (for sprint planning):

Token Budget:  P50 = ___ K tokens  (range: ___ to ___)
Duration:      ___ sprints / ___ days (range: ___ to ___)
Calibration:   {SEED / CALIBRATED}

Client summary (for quote communication):

Feature delivery:  ___ FP → AFP = ___  → $___
Sprint 0 setup:    15 FP → AFP = ___   → $___
─────────────────────────────────────────────
Total AFP: ___    Total Quote: $___
Stack Factor: ___    Org Factor: ___    $/FP: $___

Present both to user for review.

Rules to Follow

I. Always Show Ranges for Token Budget

Never present a single-point token estimate. Always present min/expected/max.

II. AFP Is the Client Unit — Token Budget Is Not

The client receives AFP and the $ total. The token budget is an internal planning tool. Do not show K-token numbers in the client summary.

III. Token Budget Is a Constraint, Not Just an Output

If expected token budget exceeds the team's capacity, that is a scope/priority conversation.

IV. AFP Drives Billing — SP Does Not

Billing is always AFP × $/FP. Never invoice on SP or raw tokens.

V. Label the Convergence Phase

Every token estimate must declare its convergence phase. An "initial concept" estimate with ±400% uncertainty is not a commitment.

Success Criteria

• Token estimates (min/expected/max) computed for all scenarios (internal)
• AFP computed from FP × Stack Factor × Org Factor (client-facing)
• Sprint 0 overhead AFP included if bootstrap was flagged in EST-01
• Quote Total = AFP × $/FP computed
• COCOMO convergence phase labeled
• Rough Estimates tab and Client Quote tab of ESTIMATION_TEMPLATE.xlsx complete
• Internal summary and client summary prepared and reviewed

Inputs

Read these before starting this activity. They are produced earlier in the playbook and are authoritative — raise a drift event instead of deviating.

• Estimation Reference Table (Document, Required) — produced by Calibrate Reference Stories (#67).
• Estimation Template (Excel) (Document, Required) — produced by Size Scenarios (Level 1 SWAG) (#68).
• Lessons Learned Document (Document, Optional) — produced by Close Iteration (#118).